[BobaFloutist]

Why is the most likely time right now? What makes right now more likely than in five minutes? I guess you're saying if there's nothing that makes it more likely to fail at any time than at any other time, right now is the only time that's not precluded by it failing at other times? I.E. it can't fail twice, and if it fails right now it can't fail at any other time, but even if it would have failed in five minutes it can still fail right now first?

[froobius]

Yes that's pretty much it. There will be a decaying probability curve, because given you could fail at any time, you are less likely to survive for N units of time than for just 1 unit of time, etc.