[Mentlo]

Except google and facebook have locked in numbers at times of virtually no competition before they started scaling up ads. If Open AI starts scaling ads next year they will churn people at a rate that will not be offset by growth and will either plateau or more likely lose user numbers, as their product has no material edge to alternatives in the market.

I disagree with Zitron’s analysis on many points, but I don’t see Open AI achieving the numbers it needs. Investors backing it must have seen something in private disclosure to be fronting this much money. Or more precisely, I need to believe they have seen something and are not fronting all this money just based on well wishes and marketing.

[Kye]

Most people don't choose by blind taste test. How intrusive do those ads have to get before it overwhelms habit and familiarity? OpenAI might be betting on enough of its 800m and growing weekly users sticking around long enough to moot churn until a liquidity event pays everyone off.