[1970-01-01]

I think this is the first time I disagree with everything said. A properly motivated man can be whatever they want. Astronaut is absolutely within reach, along with anything else, with the exception of POTUS if you weren't born on US soil. Do not conflate your lack of 110% motivation to a cause/goal/solution as lies.

[raw_anon_1111]

I am 5 foot four and was born with a limp, do you think if I tried really hard I could have been a pro basketball player?

The entire idea that anyone can do anything they put their mind to is a lie. There are all sorts of path dependencies that limit what people can do.

[1970-01-01]

Yes. There are literally thousands of sports doctors and coaches willing to work with you. Nothing is stopping you but your high horse. Work with what you have and just do it.

[raw_anon_1111]

So you are saying at 51 i still have a chance?

[hollerith]

I hope you are being sarcastic (even though that is unlikely).

[1970-01-01]

Nope.

[hollerith]

I wonder whether there are people who believe like you do in every country or whether it is specific to the US.

[raw_anon_1111]

This is the kind of thinking that keeps poor America - especially rural America voting for policies that help the rich. They think they some day they may be able to take advantage of policies that help people making 10x what they make - ie they are only “temporarily poor”

[prmph]

I think you are confusing physical possibility with statistical probability.

And even physically, some things are just what they are. You can't escape death; you can't escape from a black hole, etc. You may claim these things may be possible in the future, but we are talking about what is currently possible.

But, the main way to understand the argument being made is: even if something is physically possible, if it is guaranteed that only say 10% people of people will achieve it, then you need to manage your expectations. It is exactly the same reason why gambling is a bad idea. In the aggregate, you are guaranteed to lose

A lot of grief arises because people ignore this basic concept. And, a lot of things in life are zero-sum: not all employees can be at the top level, otherwise that loses its meaning. Similarly, not all citizens can be president, not all people can be rich, etc.

[cortesoft]

I know that you know this isn’t true. You are telling me the only thing keeping a guy in a wheelchair out of the NBA is motivation? As for astronauts, NASA has a height limit of 193cm to be on a flight crew, so no amount of motivation is going to let a 6’6” guy be an astronaut.

These are the easy and obvious counters to your assertion that motivation is all it takes to be anything, but it is even true at most things. We like to believe that hard work is all that is needed to achieve anything you want, but any rigorous thinking and life experience will show this isn’t true. People have different skills and abilities, and some people simply don’t have the skills for certain things no matter how much they work at it.

Lastly, some of these things are simply numbers games. Every profession only has a limited number of opportunities, and some of these most highly desired ones are extremely limited. If there are two people who want to be the head coach of the Los Angeles Lakers, no amount of motivation is going to prevent at least one of them from failing to get the job. Even if both candidates had infinite motivation and infinite skill and infinite experience, only one of them can have the job.

[ajkjk]

the storyline by which "person under the flight limit becomes astronaut" is something like: they become famous and renowned and respected for some kind of science at which they are an expert; in the next twenty years spaceflight changes tremendously; the rules change; they end up on the shortlist for a flight colonizing Mars because they deserve it and rules are made up anyway.

So "success" looks like "changing the world". Doesn't it mean it can't be done! Just that it's gonna be hard.

not that this disproves your point per se, but, like... saying something can't happen because of rules is silly. Rules change all the time. The NBA example is better. But can a wheelchair-bound person end up professionally-good at basketball? Sure, maybe, in a future where medicine accomplishes a lot and they end up with bionic legs or whatever, plus they're incredibly driven to test those legs on basketball. Why not? The future can be anything.

[cortesoft]

> Why not? The future can be anything.

I don’t think the ability to come up with an implausible scenario where a person could become the thing that seems impossible is the same thing as saying “if you have enough motivation, you can become anything you want”. Both scenarios you described require a lot of things to happen that you are not in control of; space flight changing significantly and colonizing mars aren’t something you can work at.

Also, the height limit isn’t just a made up rule, it is so you can fit in the spaceship.

For the wheelchair basketball player, they can’t just work hard and suddenly the NBA lets people on with bionic legs. That would require a major rule shift, which again is not something you can change through hard work and motivation.

Look, I get why we want to persist the myth that you can accomplish anything though hard work. You CAN accomplish a lot, and probably more than you think, through dedication and hard work, but you definitely can’t if you don’t believe you can. So, we tell ourselves (and others) that you can be anything if you work hard so as to encourage people to try for things they might not try for because they don’t realize they can accomplish the thing if they work hard. It makes some sense to try to delude yourself into thinking you can do anything in order to prevent the situation where you actually could have accomplished the thing you wanted to do, but you didn’t try because you didn’t think you could.

So I get it, but really, if you think it through… there are things out of your control that will factor into whether you can accomplish your goal or not, and you have to be prepared for that, too.

[ajkjk]

We're kinda talking about different philosophies here. There's "can it be done in any timeline" and "can it be done practically". Of course it can't be done practically. But if that is a 100%-filter on the things you attempt, then things that aren't likely to ever happen will never be attempted. Things go a lot better when people have unrealistic expectations and then end up in places they didn't expect (probably not the place they aimed for...). That's a moral worth nurturing, even if it is not any sort of practical approach that you would stake anything on.

Basically: it is false that you can be anything in particular if you work hard enough. But it is true that the best way to act is as if that were true to some degree, because the outcomes are better for everybody.

[cortesoft]

It sounds like we are actually in agreement, then. You can absolutely achieve more things than seem possible, but you can’t achieve everything. I don’t think it is a bad idea to try things that seem unlikely to succeed, or to believe you can achieve something that is rationally very unlikely. You are right, having some irrational belief in yourself will often lead to more positive outcomes.

I just think you shouldn’t conclude that you just didn’t work hard enough if you don’t achieve every dream. As Captain Picard put it, “It is possible to commit no mistakes and still lose. That is not a weakness, that is life."

[1970-01-01]

NWBA is a legit basketball league with pro athletes. NASA may limit your astronaut dreams due to height but SpaceX won't. You state easy and obvious concerns, yet they all are self limiting..

[cortesoft]

Sure, if you modify your goal to a more realistic version of the goal, you can achieve it. That is different than saying you can achieve any specific goal you want if you work hard enough.

[sushisource]

I mean that's just obviously, objectively, not true. If you're born with 12-inch legs you are _not_ going to be an elite marathon runner. Heck, even if you're born with average genetics, you're not going to be an elite runner.

What would make us think the same thing isn't true of mental activities? Obviously there's a lot more noise in the signal, and it's a lot more subjective, but there's pretty much 0% chance that if anyone just "tries hard enough" they can become a genius.

[1970-01-01]

>I mean that's just obviously, objectively, not true. If you're born with 12-inch legs you are _not_ going to be an elite marathon runner

My empiric objection is simply to watch this video. Everything here is objectively true:

https://youtu.be/cEItmb_a20M

[sushisource]

That's super duper cool, but, it doesn't refute my statement. If what you're saying is "you can do anything you want at a level that will challenge you". Yeah, sure, but not at a level comparable to the best of the best.