[echoangle]

What does that tell you about AI in 100 years though? We could have another AI winter and then a breakthrough and maybe the same cycle a few times more and could still somehow get AGI at the end. I’m not saying it’s likely but you can’t predict the far future from current companies.

[BoorishBears]

You're making the mistake of assuming the failure of the current companies would be seperated from the failures of AI as a technology.

If we continue the regime where OpenAI gets paid to buy GPUs and they fail, we'll have a funding winter regardless of AI's progress.

I think there is a strong bull case for consumer AI but it looks nothing like AGI, and we're increasingly pricing in AGI-like advancements.