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by encroach 248 days ago
Here's 46% for 2030. It's had $350k in volume across the 4 markets.

https://kalshi.com/markets/kxoaiagi/openai-achieves-agi/oaia...
1 comments
echoangle 248 days ago
That’s also about OpenAI claiming they have AGI. That doesn’t resolve based on actual AGI.
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tim333 248 days ago
I wonder if there is a test for AGI which is definite enough to bet on? My personal test idea is when you can send for a robot to come fix your plumbing rather than needing a human.
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