[everdrive]

> and reliability.

The newest vehicle reliability advances are _less_ reliability via:

- cylinder deactivation

- ubiquitous turbos

- gasoline direction injection

- more computers

- generally higher cost of repairs (eg: if a car from 2023 needed a headlight it would cost much more than a car from 1998 needing a headlight, and even if they both had the same failure rate the reliability of the new car would be worse from cost alone)

[topspin]

This is well informed and correct. Understand this if you buy a new ICE vehicle: the drive train is uneconomic to repair out of warranty: do not imagine you'll keep it long term or hand it off to a kid or whatever.

[potato3732842]

Costs drop like a rock once vehicles get old enough that they can't be financed, which means dealers won't sell them, which means they won't be bundled with 3rd party warranties and service plans, which means that the owner will be the one paying and there's actual pressure to control costs (because the owner has no party down the line to pass costs onto).

For example, for the longest time Nissan CVTs were "nonrebuildable, send it back and buy a reman" now any idiot can rebuild one for under a grand in parts.

4L60 and E4OD rebuilds were also $$$ for a long time now they're dirt cheap too.

[topspin]

I wouldn't cite the 4L60E in this argument. It's an ancient design, as Wikipedia puts it, "The 4L60E is the electronically commanded evolution of the Turbo-Hydramatic 700R4, originally produced in 1982." The 700R4 is a THM350 from 1969 with an additional overdrive gear.

I'm not writing about 50+ year old platforms, around which a huge market of suppliers and technicians has evolved. The ICE transmissions GM sells today are vastly more complex, with zero design commonality with the classic stuff, and enjoy none of the benefit of long adoption that make the classic stuff cost effective. Further, and this is the important part, because the lifecycle of everything ICE is much shorter now, measured in years as opposed to decades, they never will.

So ten years from now, when your circa 2020 10L60 dies, there won't be a transmission shop in every town that's equipped and stocked to deal with it cheaply. The cost will be greater than the value of the vehicle. And that's my point: these vehicles are not going to be economic to operate out of warranty.

[potato3732842]

>It's an ancient design

My ass.

You can trace all these designs back forever. It's more "inspired by" than actual incremental revision in most cases. There is just about nothing but some vague shapes that look similar and maybe some bolt lengths that are common between a 4L60 and the TH350 era stuff.

>Further, and this is the important part, because the lifecycle of everything ICE is much shorter now, measured in years as opposed to decades, they never will.

The average car on the road is lasting longer as the years go on. People said the same things when fuel injection came out.

>So ten years from now, when your circa 2020 10L60 dies, there won't be a transmission shop in every town that's equipped and stocked to deal with it cheaply. The cost will be greater than the value of the vehicle.

I'll take that bet. Modern transmissions are stupidly easy to rebuild from a skills point of view because they replace all sorts of mechanical adjustment with "hurr hurr we just PWM the solenoid to make it go BRRT and if the BRRT is too rough the computer algorithm will turn it down". Yeah there's more components, but those are easi.

[chasd00]

> do not imagine you'll keep it long term or hand it off to a kid or whatever.

i don't agree, my friend has been driving the same Toyota LandCruiser for 20 years. I will have no problems handing my 2016 4runner down to my kid who turns 16 this December. The 4runner will last another 10 years easy.

[topspin]

> Toyota LandCruiser for 20 years

Respectfully I specifically wrote "new." 20 year old SUVs predate the issues of new vehicles.

> my 2016 4runner

Even a 2016 vehicle predates what I'm pointing out. A 2016 4runner likely has a 270hp naturally aspirated V6 with modest power and a relatively basic 5 speed auto transmission. A 2025 4runner is a turbo charged 4 cylinder making nearly 2hp/cu in. and an 8 speed transmission. The former is much simpler and thus economic to maintain and repair compared to the latter.

ICE vehicle drivetrains have changed radically in only the last few years. They're almost universally using forced induction, integrated into unserviceable castings, to attain far higher volumetric efficiency, equivalent to high performance engines of not long ago. Gone are the 4-5 speed transmissions and transaxles: 8-10+ speed is the norm, and the complexity follows here as well. They are absolutely intolerant of neglect and abuse. Repairs are complex and likely to fail: manufacturers have taken to replacing major assemblies in leu of attempting repairs as they would have in the past. Part of that is due to the unserviceable nature of these components. Another part is the lack of dealer talent to deal with their own products. Another part is that the manufacturing lifecycle of major assemblies is now extremely short: only a couple years, whereas 10+ years was normal for common platforms as recently as the the 2010s.

What this means is: when these new products are no longer supported by manufacturers, who will drop their supply obligations rapidly as they legally can due to short lifecycles, parts will be fabulously expensive and difficult to obtain and the skills and tools necessary to repair them will be rarified and also expensive. Post-warranty ICE vehicles will be uneconomic, full stop.

[dave78]

also:

- tons of sensors with limited lifespans

- more complicated transmissions with more gears

- auto start/stop

Pretty much all of these reliability reducers are manufacturers trying to eek a little more MPGs by throwing lots of complicated technology at the problem, which introduces a lot more failure points.

Headlights and taillights on my current vehicle are supposedly around $1500 each, mostly due to a bunch of sophisticated sensors being built in.

Back in the 80s headlights were standardized (in the US at least) - you either had rectangular or circular. They were available at every auto parts store. Now they're a special order item from the dealer.

[everdrive]

Oh, and new "high" oil and fuild change intervals. They'll get you through warranty, but your car won't make it to 150k or 200k.

[kube-system]

New synthetic oils are very durable. They actually do last a long time.

There are oil tests that confirm this. Also, 10,000+ mile oil changes are not new, and there are tons of used vehicles on the market, running around with long oil change intervals, and high mileage.

[prerok]

Not even mentioning that you cannot change the headlight by yourself.

[kube-system]

But you can't change a headlight bulb if they're a sealed unit, because those don't have bulbs, but with basic tools, you can certainly change a headlight.

But also, if you have a vehicle with a sealed headlight, you're probably not having to change it every other winter.