| Of course the flowchart that fill that blank has other outcomes than total nuclear war, but you aren't considering how unacceptable those outcomes are to those involved or the feedback loops involved. Let me ask you this question. Why did Russia use a small nuke on a military target in the middle of nowhere Ukraine? Because the outcome was positive for Russia... but the only way that can be true is if the cost of using a small nuke was better than the alternatives. This either means it was a demonstration / political action or... 1 or more Russian units in the Ukraine are armed with tactical nukes and it was a militarily sound option so by definition you'll see more nuke flying around at least from the Russian side when it's militarily sound. Now due to the realities of logistics that means there is capturable nuclear material on the battlefield. If it's a demonstration/political action what do you think it was meant to accomplish? Either the consequences will be less detrimental than the military gain and so Russia can use tactical nukes and will do so if it improves the military situation... or the consequences will be at a level detrimental to Russia. See the premise of the question is flawed in that Russia doesn't just use one Nuke in the middle of nowhere, because everyone already knows Russia has nukes. Russia is trying to demonstrate it will use them and so the actions from that are either a Ukraine alliance capitulation, Russia can continue the war just the same but with whatever ever extra political consequences of using 1 nuke, or continue the situation using Nukes. You see the issue right? Should the Ukraine alliance surrender to a single tactical nuke when it hasn't to the threat of strategic nukes? Russia can't fire that first Nuke without being a country willing to use tactical nukes on the battlefield and what did they gain if not the use of those nukes to ensure a military victory because it hasn't ensured a diplomatic one. So the statement becomes: Russia uses tactical nukes across the battlefield. ____. Everyone is firing nukes at eachother. That last sentence is synonymous with "Strategic nukes being fired by ICBM" which is incredibly likely when 1 non scheduled ICBM is fired. While you're right that 1 tactical nuke in the middle of nowhere wouldn't ensure MAD, it is not a massive assumption that the realities around that 1 nuke being used would. |