AI is not going anywhere. Now everyone wants to get a piece. Local inference is expected to grow. Documents, image, video, etc processing. Another obvious is driverless farm vehicles and other automated equipment. "Assisted" books, images, news,.. already and grows fast. Translation also a fact.
So far there is no 'plateau' in the nearest future. 'AI' as a science and its applications should develop further for the next several years. Models will get more efficient, but still the bigger the better. This is obvious. Even if models don't scale up well, they can be used collectively in parallel 'brainstorming'. This will still create demand for hardware. Stagnation is still possible in case of recession. In this case even stable businesses will suffer.
As for efficiency, replacing one programmer in group of 10 with AI already will increase productivity and lower the price. In most cases. In reality adding AI accounts to existing group works better. This is _now_, not hopes or sci-fi.
That's why I'm saying there is no way back. 'AI winter' is as likely as smartphones winter.
Your entire argument is whoefully ignoring the CapEx economics of all of this.
But that's the foundation.
And there is a plateau in real money spent on AI chips.
You're ignoring a whole group of economic and finance professionals as well as - if you're inclined to listen to their voices more - Sama calling it a bubble.
If not for AI spending, the US already would be in a recession.
So your argument might sound nice and practical from a purely scientific perspective or the narrow use case of AI coding support, but it's entirely detached from reality.
The basics here is return for investments. If it's all just a bubble it will pop. We'll see soon. For now it doesn't look like, to me. And that creates a lot of complexity on top of 'digital divide' we already have.
There is a serious possibility this isn’t a bubble. Too many people watched the big short and now call every bull a bubble; maybe the bubble was the dollar and it’s popping now instead.
Have you looked in detail at the economics of this?
Career finance professionals are calling it a bubble, not due to their suddenly found deep technological expertise, but because public cos like FAANG et. al are engaging in typical bubble like behavior: Shifting capex away from their balance sheets into SPACs co-financed by private equity.
This is not a consumer debt bubble, it's gonna be a private market bubble.
But as all bubbles go, someones gonna be left holding the bag with society covering for the fallout.
It'll be a rate hike, it'll be some Fortune X00 enterprises cutting their non-ROI-AI-bleed or it'll be an AI-fanboy like Oracle over-leveraging themselves and then watching their credit default swaps going "Boom!" leading to a financing cut off.
It's possible, circular financing is definitely fishy, but OTOH every openai deal sama makes is swallowed by willing buyers at a fair market price. We'll be in a bubble when all the bears are dead and everyone accepts 'a new paradigm', not before; there's plenty of upside capitulation left judging by some hedge fund returns this year.
...and again, this is assuming AI capability stops growing exponentially in the widest possible sense (today, 50%-task-completion time horizon doubles ~7 months).