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by throwmeaway222 246 days ago
most of this research is fake you know.

For example this was going around for a long time:

https://www.brennancenter.org/our-work/analysis-opinion/debu...

Then this happened in 2025 when there was a crack-down on crime:

https://counciloncj.org/crime-trends-in-u-s-cities-mid-year-...

Also, 1% of the population is responsible for most of the crime

https://pmc.ncbi.nlm.nih.gov/articles/PMC3969807/

So if you end up jailing people, the crime just goes down.

Also, then if that's true, then cancel all murder prison sentences!
1 comments
drdaeman 245 days ago
I don't understand the argument here. Both can be true, as those two statements don't really conflict:

1. Longer sentences could have no effect on crime rates.

2. Persecuting people for crimes lowers crime rates.

Honestly, to me it reads as "law enforcement is a good idea, prolonged incarceration is questionable".

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throwmeaway222 245 days ago
I'm too lazy/busy right now to get you effective links (debugging a database migration right now) but Google AI said this:

Reported effects of CECOT on crime

Reduction in crime rates

Since Bukele declared a state of emergency in March 2022 and began mass arrests, El Salvador's crime rates have plummeted.

    Homicide rate decline: The country's homicide rate fell from 103 per 100,000 people in 2015 to just 1.9 per 100,000 in 2024, one of the most drastic reductions in recent history.
    Increased public safety: Many Salvadorans, long subjected to extortion and violence by powerful gangs, report feeling much safer on the streets.
A large part of Cecot is the idea of "permanent prison". I would say your entire argument is completely debunked.
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drdaeman 244 days ago
> I would say your entire argument is completely debunked.

With all due respect, I did not have any argument.

I was reading your conversation, I had difficulty seeing a contradiction, so I asked a question.

You've introduced one more statement instead, "mass arrests with long-term sentences have drastically reduced crime rate in El Salvador". I see your point but this doesn't really help me with my original question. How do we know that it's the sentence terms is a significant factor (out of the combination), and not the mass arrests or something else? We don't have a control group, do we?

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dabinat 245 days ago
Your argument only covers a three year period. How does that prove that long prison sentences reduce crime?
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