[cpursley]

Want to do? They’re doing it now, and are ahead of the west in some processes already. It’s a made up concern because they are a geopolitical rival. And their economy is already a major success story; they’ve lifted something like 800 million people out of abject poverty in the last 25 years.

[baq]

I don't disagree about the economic outcome today, but I don't understand how you can say that demographics issues are made up - either they are made up in the west, too, or they aren't. Nobody knows what will happen in the next 25 years, maybe nothing much, maybe we'll all be replaced by humanoid robots in the west, in the east and in the third world, too.

[cpursley]

They are made up in sense of it being some kind huge pending disaster for China. Also, trends can reverse with the right policies.

[baq]

The disaster is a classic train wreck in super slow motion best proxied by 30-year government bond yield, currently the highest on the curve at 2.27.

[cpursley]

Meh, the same usual suspects doing the predicting have been wildly wrong on nearly all things China for the past 30 years.