[watwut]

Black swan event should be unexpected. Trumps victory was within expected possibilities. It was also his second victory.

And his moves after winning were not unexpected either - he is doing what his opponents predicted he will do.

[intended]

True. It must be added, that theres two wrenches in the machinery that transforms information into action currently.

Firstly - The average market behavior is average.

From experience, most people could not imagine anything of what was predicted, would come true. There is a large … debt of intellectual work that is being underwritten, allowing people to sell narratives which do not correspond to reality.

This is a direct result of a captured, unfair information environment.

As a result, the average behavior of the market is not pricing in these things, even if the plans were made clear.

[littlestymaar]

A coronavirus causing a global pandemic at some point was even more expected though.

And even the erratic government reactions to the pandemic was not entirely unpredictable either to be fair.

[freejazz]

Yes, expected at some point. Everyone knows when the election will happen, who is running, etc.

[formerly_proven]

> Trumps victory was within expected possibilities.

While people felt that polls indicated a Harris victory and the margin of Trump's win was a surprise and a failure of forecasters, in reality it was always a toss-up in forecasts: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Nationwide_opinion_polling_for...