| important context: That gas is theoretical/unproduced. You need to dig lots of wells first. Even there I don't really see it. I agree that it was intended as an easy land grab (and I guess, after Hostomel failed, they should have pulled the plug on the SMO then and there and accept the consequences). But the reasons don't make sense. In particular, that gas thing: Gas is on the way out. Clearly so. Even during the cuban missile crisis, with everything that was going on, the flow through the pipelines of russian gas to west germany never stopped. It wasn't even considered. The west totally distrusted russia for good reason. They spent 20 years being a reliable supplier to build up that trust and they finally managed to get it. And then they toss it out the window like it was nothing even before the 2022 Ukraine invasion. I think the reason is clear: EU keeps saying it wants to wean itself off of gas in the next 15 years or so. What possible value does this trust relation have if the EU is no longer interested in buying gas at all? Then either way Russia's grab is nonsensical: * Either they understand gas's future (as in, 10 to 30 years from now) is highly limited, and this land grab never made any sense; it won't come online in time and the SMO further incentivises EU to divest. Even if the SMO worked out, there'd be some incentive (it did not work and the EU massively divested. They still buy russian gas but are going at an astronomical pace compared to 1970-2010 reliance on russian gas which increased even in the middle of a cold war and crises!) * Or they do not believe it'll end, in which case that trust relationship is very important, in which case they screwed up the plan when they used their relationship with the EU as supplier-of-gas a bargaining chip even before the failed SMO. Either way Russia messed this up badly. Add to that: The ones essentially paying the bill for this war are the oligarchs. The relative rates of richness between the russian plebs and the oligarchs has swung massively towards the plebians. The government is printing rubles nonstop and the average salary of russians has skyrocketed. That, obviously, 'costs' the oligarchs. Their rubles are worth far, far less. Already today and that won't change anytime soon. Possibly the oligarchs were assuming the SMO would work out, but, "the russian elites dont care and wanted this" - okay, but that means they are idiots then, as this did not at all work out in their favour. I think it's a lot simpler: Putin is in control, not the oligarchs. Haven't been for a while. As he ages he wants to leave a mark and thinks his reign was best summarized as "carefully shepherding Russia through its terminal decline, down from the days of the USSR" and didn't like the look of that epitaph... and massively underestimated the difficulty of the SMO. There's nothing more to it. |