[arjunnarayan]

Degrees granted to me in the US: B.A., M.Eng, and soon, Ph.D.

Estimated cost of educating me paid for in entirety by American individuals (Private+Government): $600,000.

Chances of me getting to stay in the US:

Scenario 1: I get a tenure track job at an R-1 University, and I am exempt from the H1-B cap. The subsequent waiting time for my green card application is not long as I will be able to apply under the EB-1 track. Probability: Low to very low. The academic market is a crapshoot, and I need to churn out some serious publications over the next 3-4 years.

Scenario 2: I get employed at a Google/Microsoft class firm and they sponsor an H1-B. I wait the estimated 5 years for an EB-2 green card application to go through. Probability: very low to almost nil, as I don't want to be locked in for 5 years in such a job unless I get a researcher position (i.e. at MSR).

Scenario 3: I start a company. So I have a runway of about 29 months (which is how long the US allows a graduate to stay and work under OPT rules) to either make millions of dollars and reapply under O-1/H1-B. Otherwise, I am definitely out of the country as there is no way for me to stay in the US. Probability of success: low to very low.

Scenario 4: I marry an American girl and get a Green Card as a spouse of a citizen. Probability: low. I won't compromise my current/future relationships and/or hasten my life goals in order to stay in this country. Not when Canada is such an attractive option (with my degrees and partial French speaking ability I earn enough points under their system to get permanent residency on arrival).

Political status of this bullshit: http://www.theatlantic.com/business/archive/2012/09/why-cong...

Return on investment for American interests: Likely zero.

[refurb]

You should seriously look at applying under EB-1 (extraordinary ability).

I had a coworker that obtained a PhD in China, got an industry job and then filed under EB-1 after publishing a number of scientific papers. He was a very good scientist, but not what I would regard as having "extraordinary ability".

The nice part is that you can self-petition, so no need to wait on your employer to start the process, no need to go through labor certification, which shaves a good year off of the process and typically priority dates are all current (even for countries that are typically affect by yearly quotas).

My coworker ended up getting his green card in a little over a year from starting the process.

[shreyansj]

Your probability for Scenario 2 is very low to almost nil. Why is that. You are aiming for R-1 university but you are not confident of getting into MSR etc? And you can still switch jobs while your Green Card application is pending. I think it's called AC21 though I am not exactly sure on the exact terminology.

On a side note, H1-B is cap exempt for ALL educational institutes and non-profit organizations.

[neilk]

You cannot switch jobs and keep the same Green Card application. It's true you can transfer an H-1B between employers but any associated Green Card application is lost if you leave them.

[refurb]

This is only true during the labor certification or PERM part of the green card application. There are typically three phases to an employment-based green card app:

1. Labor certification/PERM (proof there is a need by the company) 2. I-140 application (proof you fill that need) 3. I-485 (formal application to receive PR)

It's been a few years since I went through the process, but basically, as soon as you've completed step 1, you can apply for steps 2 and 3. Once you've applied for 2 and 3, you receive an EAD card (work authorization).

It's always a little dicey to switch jobs with just the EAD because employment-based greens card require that you _intended_ to work for the employer who sponsored you. If you leave right after getting the EAD, your application may be denied because they don't believe you ever intended to work for your sponsor.

This is actually a pretty sweet position to be in because the company that hires you only has to keep applying for an EAD card for you. Pretty simple and not a lot of money.

Typically, if you wait 6 months or so after sending in the I-140/I-485, you can switch companies (through AC21). However, you need to find another job that is substantially similar to the one that was the basis of your green card application, you can't just take any job you want.

[neilk]

I've never heard of this before, from either my lawyer or any of the lawyers for any of the firms I've worked for. And I have asked this question specifically, because in my case, it may take much longer than normal to get a Green Card. But I'll investigate.

[refurb]

I did a quick google search and it appears that in order to switch jobs you need to have your I-140 approved, so I did misspeak on that point.

However, since the labor certification part (PERM) is a much quicker process and you can file for your I-140 and I-485 concurrently, it's not unreasonable to assume that from the date you first start the process, you'll likely to be able to switch jobs after 2 years or so.

This is actually really important for those poor souls from India and China who have priority dates that still in the 90s and won't likely get the physical green card for at least 5 years if not longer.

One thing to keep in mind is that lawyers often disagree as to how to interpret the USCIS regulations. I've had lawyers say "Jesus! Don't even leave the country!" and others say "Yeah, it's fine to switch jobs, no problem." It just depends on how risk adverse they are.

[arjunnarayan]

1. The probability is low because the chance that I take it up is lower (these are two-sided decision processes).

2. The H1-B cap is not the issue. It is the green card line. Since I am from India (note: this would also apply to China) the wait is extremely long.

[rantony]

You don't have to wait for 5 years to become an EB-2. You can apply for the green card in EB-2 the next day you join MSR/Google or any company. You can switch your job as long as you have a valid I-140 cleared by the employer. Although you would be applying a brand new GC at the new employer you will keep your priority date you filed with the first employer. Clearning labour certification and I-140 takes only less than a year.

AC21 is when you have an EAD and want to switch before 180 days of filing I-485.

And EB-1 is still an option, if you have a PhD. The chances with EB-1 is pretty high for you.

[grouma]

I can't remember which TED talk I saw but they discussed this very issue. It's alarming to think one of America's biggest export is Master/PhD students.

[tzs]

I don't think it is alarming. Check out most lists that rank graduate schools around the world. The US is quite disproportionately represented among the top. We've got Harvard, Berkekey, Stanford, Caltech, MIT, CMU, Chicago, Princeton, and UCLA for instance. No one else comes close to having that many schools of that quality.

The UK has two to four, and nearly everyone else has none or one.

Given this, it is not at all surprising that a lot of foreign students come to the US for graduate school even if they do not intend to stay in the US after getting their degree.

[arjunnarayan]

According to this article[1], 46% of American PhDs in science and engineering were awarded to foreigners in 2007. For 2011, I've heard 52%, but I can't locate the source.

[1] http://online.wsj.com/article/SB1000142405274870490560457502...

[HarryHirsch]

Return on investment for American interests: Likely zero.

You know. Congress knows, and they won't change the status quo.

The obvious reading is that the H1-B track gives a ready supply of workers with very little leverage. The interests of the American public or, God forbid, of immigrants are second to the desire to depress wages at the high end.