[hilbert42]

"It will take 5-10 years to build alternate sources (some small pilot projects are near completion, but scaling up will take a while), so during that time the US could be short on weapons"

As I said elsewhere, if the US really wanted to it could solve the shortage in only months. I refer you to the phenomenal retooling exercise and enormous production growth in WWII. I suggest you read those stats.

It's just a matter of will.

[mitthrowaway2]

From about the 1910s to the 1960s, the USA was considered the world's factory. If you wanted the get a product made, you'd go there to set up a production line; if you wanted to make a factory elsewhere, you'd hire American experts to teach you and tool it up for you.

The USA no longer has that role for hardware, although it does for software.

[piva00]

The US had the knowledge in the workforce to do the retooling 80 years ago, why do you think that still exists? You can believe that all you want, it's a comforting thought but I don't see 2025 USA having at all the same capacity.

[jandrewrogers]

The US still one of the leading countries in the world for mining and refining by any measure. It has extensive expertise and its mineral wealth is unusually diverse.

All of this is despite the fact the US effectively banned new mining several decades ago. The US is a mineral juggernaut and has the technical knowledge but growth has been severely restricted as a matter of policy for a long time.

By analogy, US oil production was in terminal decline since the 1970s and presumed dead at the end of the 20th century. Now the US is the world’s leading oil producer with no sign of slowing down.

There is every reason to believe the same thing would happen if the US decided to re-open the mountain west to mineral exploration.