[Wowfunhappy]

> We are not seeing that (currently) with GPUs. Perf/watt has basically completely stalled out recently while tokens per user has easily increased in many use cases has went up 100x+ (take Claude code usage vs normal chat usage). It's very very unlikely we will get breakthroughs in compute efficiency in the same way we did in the late 90s/2000s for fiber optic capacity.

At least for gaming, GPU performance per dollar has gotten a lot better in the last decade. It hasn't gotten much better in the past couple of years specifically, but I assume a lot of that is due to the increased demand for AI use driving up the price for consumers.

Why wouldn't Moore's Law continue?

[Ekaros]

Difference is that with fiber you can put more data on same piece of glass or plastic or whatever just by swapping the parts at the end. And those are relatively small part of the cost. Most which is just getting the thing in place.

With GPUs and CPUs. You need to replace entire thing. And now they are the most expensive part of the system.

Other option is doing more with same computing power, but we have utterly failed with that in general...

[martinald]

It's been worse than that. Datacentres are needing basically completely rebuilt for especially Blackwell chips as they mostly require liquid cooling, not air cooling as before. So you don't need to just replace the hardware, you need to replace all the power AND provide liquid cooling, which means completely redesigning the entire datacentres.