[jedberg]

I've said it before and I'll said it again:

The people investing in AI companies (and the big players spending in AI) are seeking Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). It's the only way they get a return on their capital.

They are investing so they can get there first. Money basically becomes meaningless at that point, whoever owns the AGI owns the world. That's the only way to get a return on that investment.

[mitthrowaway2]

Or the AGI owns its owners and the rest of the world; getting it to respect its owner's wishes remains an unsolved problem which many people still seem to think isn't worth even spending time figuring out at this point.

[JumpCrisscross]

> people investing in AI companies (and the big players spending in AI) are seeking Artificial General Intelligence (AGI). It's the only way they get a return on their capital

Then why fuck around with ads?

[jedberg]

They still need income to offset the spend.

[JumpCrisscross]

> They still need income to offset the spend

How would you test the hypothesis that they're running these like regular businsses versus on a crusade?

[jedberg]

I'm assuming you're trying to get me to say "you don't, they look the same".

I'm just giving the view from an investors point of view -- you don't expect these to eventually run like a normal business where their revenue exceeds their cost. You expect them to make as much revenue as they can while they spend more than the make to get to AGI.

[JumpCrisscross]

> I'm assuming you're trying to get me to say "you don't, they look the same"

No, I'm genuinely asking for a test. Pursuing ancilliary revenue would, to me, indicate they're behaving more like a business and less like a moonshot.

> giving the view from an investors point of view -- you don't expect these to eventually run like a normal business where their revenue exceeds their cost

I've invested in AI companies. Every pitch material I've seen projects forward to profitability.

[jedberg]

Pursuing ancillary revenue can still be a moonshot. Look at SpaceX. Musk has specially said his goal is Mars. But they still build ships and sell commercial services to fund continued development.

I've invested in AI companies too, but I'm not taking about that. I'm talking about foundation model companies (namely OpenAI, Anthropic, Amazon, Google, etc.).

I'm sure the pitches for Anthropic and OpenAI show paths to profit, because you'd have to, and I'm sure the internal docs at Google and Amazon show the same thing, but that doesn't mean it's not a moonshot.

You'd have to show that if you want to get funded at all.