[bubblelicious]

> asking where today’s AI bubble – because that’s what it clearly is – fits in a 1990s timeline

Yet evidence is:

- CAPE is high - NVIDIA has a very large market cap - enormous capital investment in AI and relatively few companies

I assume also a chorus of “AI actually doesn’t make you more productive!” And “AI capex and opex vastly outweighs realized profits!”

Seems a little less than “clearly”.

All of these are very much RISK factors, yet you need to assume the market is being irrational and assume that AI is NOT going to have the impact the market thinks it will. Personally for me I don’t understand: pretty clear trend in capabilities without a clear and insurmountable roadblock, so I totally get the “I think it’s a bubble” argument, it’s just that I think people underestimate what’s to come

[lepus]

"This time is different"

[bubblelicious]

It’s more like people pretend it’s “obvious” that the market is going to do something or that AI developments are not going to support the spend, it’s just not obvious to me. I think people overweight probability on a bubble. Saying it’s “clearly a bubble” is hubris.