| Most of the market's upward movement is from a few stocks that are getting lots of juice from Federal policy. Gold and silver are at record levels because of capital fleeing fiat due to lack of confidence in central banks -- Trump is actively attacking the US Fed trying to destroy Fed independence. Because the dollar is the world’s funding and invoicing currency, big moves by the Fed reset global financial conditions—pushing other central banks to react even when their domestic cycles don’t match. Real estate has stalled, hiring has stalled, car buying has stalled (so much unsold inventory dealers can't afford floor plan!). Farmers are getting a $10-$15B bailout / hush money. It's just a matter of time until the correction occurs. The spike in equities is also based on the assumption that the equities will weather the inflation and still end up as a store of value, but I think that's naive. Take TSLA, currently "winning" in the special olympics micro-market of the tariff-protected US EV market, and losing internationally -- Musk just did a $1B buyback to juice the price. Take NVIDIA, finally going to get real competition from AMD but spiking after US "deals" juiced the price. Chinese GPUs are 12 months behind and rapidly closing the gap and will be half the price per perf/watt (TSLA investors pretend Chinese EVs don't exist, but not for long). Imagine 30-120 days out once the national guard is occupying and helping ICE detain more and more of the workforce in the most economically productive 90% of the country! The US economy is facing the greatest coordinated sabotage it has ever faced and as soon as the real numbers come in things are going to get very very ugly. The country seems to have forgotten that central planning does not work. |
That may be part of it. But another part is the US deficit. There is no way that's sustainable. The Fed can't fix it; Congress has to. And do you see any reason to hope that Congress will?