[Esophagus4]

No. Then you haven’t spotted a bubble.

You’ve just made a comment that “wow, things are going up!” That’s not spotting bubble, that’s my non-technical uncle commenting at a dinner party, “wow this bitcoin thing sure is crazy huh?”

Talk is cheap. You learn what someone really believes by what they put their money in. If you really believe we’re in a bubble, truly believe it based on your deep understanding of the market, then you surely have invested that way.

If not, it’s just idle talk.

[vuggamie]

I truly believe we are in a bubble. I truly believe that AI will exist on the other side of that bubble, just as internet companies and banks existed on the other side of the dotcom crash and the housing crisis.

I don't know how to invest to avoid this bubble. My money is where my mouth is. My investments are conservative and long-term. Most in equity index funds, some bonds, Vanguard mutual funds, a few hand-picked stocks.

No interest in shorting the market or trying to time the crash. I would say I 90% believe a correction of 25% or more will happen in the next 12 months. No idea where my money might be safe. Palantir? Northrup Grumman?

[ndsipa_pomu]

Surely you can spot a bubble if you see that it is rapidly expanding and ultimately unsustainable. Being able to predict when it finally pops would be equivalent to winning a lottery and people would be able to make a lot of money from that, but ultimately no-one can reliably predict when a bubble will pop - doesn't mean that they weren't bubbles.

[yibg]

That’s silly. I can spot a crashing plane (engines on fire, wings torn half off) without being able to predict where and exactly when it’ll crash.

We can spot a bubble without being able to predict when it’ll pop.