[34679]

>they are completely reliant on foreign trade for their economy.

If China cut trade ties with the US, which country do you think will still be able to produce everything it needs? People like to think of China as just a source of cheap consumer goods, but we are much more reliant on them than that. Every power plant has Chinese components that keep it functioning. Every farm, automobile, communication network, aircraft, factory.. they all rely on Chinese components and equipment. The list touches every facet of modern American life.

China could make the US unrecognizable within 5 years, without ever launching a single missile

[stickfigure]

That stuff is also made in Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Phillipenes, Korea, India, etc etc etc.

Things would get a little more expensive. We are already seeing that with Trump's trade policies. But if the west-aligned world stopped trading with China their entire economy would collapse overnight, with mass unemployment.

It is a shame that Trump is deadset on alienating all of our natural allies in this conflict - especially those in the apac region.

[fencepost]

That stuff is also made in Vietnam, Malaysia, Indonesia, Phillipenes, Korea, India, etc etc etc.

If things get to that level of 'touchy' what makes you think shipping through that area wouldn't be interfered with? South Korea, Japan and arguably the Philippines are the main countries that wouldn't be going through areas that China regularly tries to claim or at least exercise authority over.

[stickfigure]

China does not have that kind of navy. Maybe it could build one, eventually. It will take decades... And it isn't just construction, it is the training and procedures and culture.

China hasn't fought a war in anyone's living memory. That is a hard place to fight nearly the whole world from.

[boringg]

It goes both ways.

[tsimionescu]

Only in economic terms. Sure, China would face a massive shortfall and would have huge unemployment if it suddenly stopped exporting to the USA. But that's not the same world of trouble as suddenly being unable to get important technology and parts, which is what the US would face. And China is really not reliant on imports from the USA - especially not in time of war (that is, they might have a problem selling things legally without paying various royalties to US companies - but that doesn't matter anymore in a world War).

[LexiMax]

Apropos what?

[boringg]

The dependency on the relationship - it was by design that it is a mutual dependency.

[thijson]

I don't see what the mutual dependency is. They sent us cheap shit for a few decades, we gave them dollars in return. Our inflation rate was super low, as we were exporting our inflation. We slowly lost the ability to make stuff domestically. That system is now crumbling, China is using their exports to buy gold instead. We are left with a hollowed out economy based on services and finance. The DOD is having a big problem building ships and submarines. Nuclear power plants can't be built affordably. In some ways, China is in the same position as the USA was during WW2, the world's factory.

[cutemonster]

> hollowed out economy based on services and finance

Just an example from today:

"N8n raises $180M (n8n.io)"

https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=45525336

That's what the US (and Europe?) seems to invest in - but things like that doesn't make the US any more competitive with China.

What if instead it was $180M in new green mining tech or something.

[LexiMax]

I think that was the idea, but in practice I think that China successfully outmaneuvered the United States by taking advantage of the short-sighted greed of our businesses leaders.

They are now the manufacturing capital of the world, and our position of being the preeminent consumer in the world lasts only as long as our consumers can afford to purchase things.

[boringg]

These are long lived relationships -- they may have outmaneueverd at some points, and also restrained at others.

China runs a precarious political situation which is only as strong as the country is economically stable - which currently it is veering to unstable. It goes without saying the US is also in a precarious situation - it is much more publicized due to the nature of the US airing all its dirty laundry publicly.