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by joe8756438 250 days ago
i have a house in a lot of sun in mid atlantic usa. i have spent a modest amount of time casually exploring solar. the cost/benefit never seems that great. what am i missing?
6 comments

Lets do some simple napkin math: Lets say a solar system will cost $25k (that should get you an 8-10kW rooftop system). Pay for it with, say, a 5% APR loan.

- 10 years: $265/mo

- 15 years: $197/mo

- 20 years: $164/mo

What are your current monthly electricity costs, and what time horizon gets you a good break-even?

Also consider what electricity costs are gonna do. The loan locks in a monthly cost, but electricity rates have lately been increasing around 3% per year. Say you currently have a $150 monthly electricity bill... in 10, 15, and 20 years that will be $202, $233, and $270/mo.

There's other ways to finance it (PPA's, leases, maybe incentives if we get serious about our energy again someday, etc.) that have their own advantages/disadvantages, but even this simple approach shows there's some wins depending on your exact consumption, time horizon, time-value of money, and what you expect your electric load to do (will you get an EV? will you adopt heat pumps? will you need to start using way more AC in the summers? etc)

I'm in a leaky, 80 year old 3 bed 2 bath in the Midwest (that doesn't have insulation in the walls... brick and plaster). Worst in the Summer is around $100/mth, worst in the Winter $40/mth (of course gas for heat is around $80 Winter, $15 Summer for water heater, stove, etc.).
Ok, sounds like it doesn't pencil out for you in your region. I have a similar size in a different part of the country with my bills consistently in the mid-$100's.

YMMV. As with most things in life, there is no one-size-fits-all. Do what's right for you.

I’m in Canada , in a tight valley where it snows a ton. I pay 13 cents a kWh for electricity.

I installed 7.8kw of rooftop solar for $8k out of pocket, all of which is on a ten year interest free loan.

In 12 months it makes smack on $1000 worth of electricity. So my payback is 8 years ( less, actually. The price of electricity here is already pre approved to increase no less than 5% a year) After that I get $1000 of power per year for twenty or so years.

The term no brainer doesn’t seem enough.

Depends on the state/city. In Minnesota with cheap electricity and not a ton of sun it's still worth it, just takes a while to recoup. In places in california you can recoup costs in as little as 2 years sometimes because the rates are so high.
The median cost/benefit of home solar is good, but not great. It tends to be a good investment, but not hugely different from other possibilities.

But the variance is huge.

The biggest benefits are in the later years due to utility escalation rates. Compounded growth rate of 4-6% does wonders 20 years later!
Where are your calculations? It's hard for anyone to comment without seeing your cost/benefit analysis.