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by ak_111 250 days ago
I always wonder why gold going this high is seen as bearish to the dollar as the US currently holds 8,133.46 metric tons of gold, more than the next three top holders combined (Germany, France and Italy) and almost twice as much as China and Russia combined (although no one really knows how much China holds).

So I would be far more concerned on the impact of gold price going high on other currencies that are not backed by as much gold before worrying about the US.

2 comments

The risk to the dollar is a flight to gold causing an decrease in interest of buyers purchasing treasuries, resulting in higher rates paid to buyers of this debt. To give a sense of scale the US issues something like 1-2 Trillion in new treasuries a year, which is roughly the value of all 8,133.46 tons if sold at current market price.

For example a 2% increase in rate on 1T in 30Y treasury issuance over 30 years is $600B.

The US dollar is in no way, shape, or form backed by gold.
I know, my point is that it is not directly backed by gold, but indirectly you can make the point there astronomical gold reserve comes into play if gold prices go insanely high.
The US GDP in 2024 was 30+ trillion. A single trillion in gold (8133t) is not an astronomical amount of gold, even though it's more than any other owner. In fact, all the gold ever mined is only ~220000 tonnes, so US GDP is higher than all the gold above ground at $4000/oz troy.