[jonnathanson]

It seems a little hasty to proclaim the death of Facebook based on a sample size of two kids. In fact, when I worked in marketing, I used to dread statements from leadership (or whomever) that began with "My kid was doing X, so we should get into X," or "I heard about Y on the radio, so I wonder...," etc. Dangerously flawed assumptions can come from this line of reasoning.

Anecdotal samples can be useful to form hypotheses, however, and in this case, I don't think the hypothesis is out of the question. My own anecdotes, be they personal, from friends, or from co-workers, seem to be indicating a very subtle paradigm shift in social networking. It's not so much that users are abandoning Facebook, or abandoning social, but that users are segmenting themselves by use case (or worldview, as the wonderful Amy Hoy would probably describe it).

The world seems to be dividing into People Who Use Facebook Every 5 Seconds, and People Who Use Facebook About Once a Week, with perhaps some other segments of significance within that spectrum. But "seems" is the operative word here. I'd need to look at actual usage data to make any real assumptions here, and my guess is that Facebook isn't going to share data that contradicts its own growth projections.

[s_henry_paulson]

Fair enough, but I think the reason this is getting upvoted so much is because I think many of us can relate to the content in the article, so maybe there is something here worth considering.

After all, with many predecessors like Friendster and Myspace, most people that left didn't even bother to delete their accounts, they just stopped using the service.

As far as anecdotal evidence, I'm seeing the same thing happen as well, both with myself and others.

[jonnathanson]

I didn't say there's no merit to the article, or that its point might not be right. It might just be. Rather, what I'm saying is that I'd like to see some actual analysis and data on this subject for once, instead of just everyone's anecdotes.

I'm pretty sure we've all got anecdotes about how our friends, kids, neighbors, co-workers, etc., are slowing down or stopping their Facebook use. And that may well mean something big. But it's equally possible that we, our peers, and our children, are not a representative sample. Or that we're just not the core FB user base. Etc.

I guess what I'm saying is that I'm open to the conjecture posed in the article. I may even be partially inclined to believe it. But I'm skeptical until I see real evidence.

[waterlesscloud]

I think stories like this get upvoted because a certain percentage of HN users want FB to fail.

A certain percentage (probably other people) want Google to fail and upvote those stories.

A certain percentage want YC to fail and upvote those stories.

A certain percentage want Apple to fail and upvote those stories.

I don't think anything meaningful can be derived from such upvote patterns.

[novamantis]

Since it's absolutely impossible for anyone to legitimately relate to the proposed sentiments because in reality all people are is haters... That's what you're saying. So let's disregard any and all anecdotes.