[anthomtb]

No link to the original research note. No real details on the methodology used. A few notes on the well-known lack of an AI business model (similar things were said about search in the late 90's).

I just don't see how the broader market is exposed to an AI crash in the way it was exposed to subprime loans. If OpenAI goes belly up is it really taking anyone else down with it?

[pizzathyme]

A shocking statistic is that YTD, 1/6th of the 2% rise in US GDP this year is attributable to AI Datacenters alone.

Source: https://www.economist.com/finance-and-economics/2025/08/18/h...

So I think if there was an AI crash, US economy goes with it in the short term

[hintymad]

During the dot-com era, internet or IT in general accounted for a much smaller percentage of the GDP. So, I'm not sure how the percentage of GDP can help us gauge the scale of the bubble, if any.

[AbstractH24]

Doesn’t that prove the post’s hypothesis that this could be larger?

[caust1c]

When you're talking the size of investment that AI-centric companies have received, on the order of hundreds of billions of dollars, there's no way it's not exposed to the wider market.

But I agree with you, the article is too light on details for how inflammatory it is.

[coryfklein]

There's good reason to believe that OpenAI's success (or failure) and the success of many other firms are correlated. If OpenAI's bubble bursts, then that is likely to spread to other close firms and – depending on severity – any other firms that are merely associated.

NVDA, MSFT, AAPL, META, and GOOG are all heavily investing in AI right now, and together make up 28% of the money tied up in S&P 500 indices. Simply investing in the S&P 500, which many people do, exposes you to meaningful downside risk of an AI bubble pop.

[IAmBroom]

Yes.

Don't get me wrong; I'm no fan of the billionaires. Eat the rich, etc. But I don't want the billionaires to lose everything suddenly, because I'm 100% sure my 401k will go down with them, and 50% sure my job will.