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by SecretDreams 256 days ago
Trading any of this, the only question that you need to answer is:

What is more painful to you, missing some gains on the way up or holding positions that have flipped from positive to negative very rapidly?

Markets like this, the moves will be violent in both directions, not just on the way up.

2 comments

This is all assuming that the government will be able to bail them out of trouble. But the bond market / interests rates / inflation and government debt mean they could so serious damage to the country if they tried.
My cost base of Nvidia is $1 so for me to lose is that Nvidia gets back to way before COVID valuation.

Nvidia is more worth than $1 per share on gaming alone.

Totally fair. If you've got a great cost basis, you can stress less. The question then becomes what feels worse:

Watching a position you sold double or watching a position you're holding get cut in half?

There is one answer to this question which is called options. Selling short term OTM CCs with half of premium being used to buy ITM Calls (1/3 protection of the CC), OTM Calls (protection against gap up) and longterm OTM Puts (earn money when Nvidia nose dives).
There is no free money from option selling, you are taking some form of directional risk whether you realise it or not
This looks like the house money effect. It's sort of a corollary to the sunk cost fallacy.