[jstanley]

NVIDIA is like the only company making money on the AI bubble, they're not the one I would choose to short.

Tesla is currently trading at 260x earnings, so to actually meet that valuation they need to increase earnings by a factor of 10 pretty sharpish.

They're literally not going to do that by selling cars, even if you include Robotaxis, so really it is a bet on the Optimus robots going as well as they possibly can.

If they make $25k profit per Optimus robot (optimistic) then I think they need to sell about a million per year to make enough money to justify their valuation. Of a product that is not even ready to sell, let alone finding out how much demand their truly is, ramping up production, etc.

For comparison the entire industrial robot market is currently about 500k units per year.

I think the market is pricing in absurdly optimistic performance for Tesla, which they're not going to be able to meet.

(I have a tiny short position in Tesla).

[0xDEAFBEAD]

Tesla has been overpriced for ages though, correct?