[anon191928]

Great points but timing it can be very hard. It can last many more years because this time they have a thing called "money printer". When crash happens, they will use it.

Yes it prints whatever amount they want, even trillions. Magically(!)

[viking123]

Most people, who try to time these, usually get it completely wrong and end up losing huge amounts of money. I just stay invested in the indexes and some long term stocks, every time I try to predict something it goes badly.

[Quarrelsome]

Bear in mind that your index becomes more and more of those six or seven companies, the more they grow. I think they're over 30% of the market? So an index tracker is still greatly exposed to this.

[nemomarx]

I wish I could get an index without them but it would probably have no growth basically - the rest of the market is struggling in comparison, right?

[StoneAndSky]

It exists: XMAG https://finance.yahoo.com/quote/XMAG/

> The index aims to provide a comprehensive and balanced representation of the U.S. equity market by including the largest 500 publicly traded equity securities, while specifically excluding the seven largest technology companies commonly referred to as the “Magnificent 7”.

Up 12% in the last year. Unfortunately, it's ten times as expensive (0.35%) as a straight S&P 500 ETF (e.g. VOO, 0.03%).

[rsynnott]

> When crash happens, they will use it.

You're suggesting that _governments_ will bail out the AI industry? I mean, why would they do that?

[surgical_fire]

"If we won't build it, China will"

I am sure that you already heard this sort of argument for AI. It's a way to bait that juicy government money.

[Quarrelsome]

Its way too expensive. We bail out banks so the little people dont lose their shirts too. There's no equivalent in AI.

[anon191928]

you are missing the point, once AI companies goes down it will take down the sp500 too. so their retirement accounts will be affected.

[Quarrelsome]

I think there's a bit of a difference between preventing a run on the banks and propping up the entire stock market for the sake of just a handful of companies that all have big enough pockets to fail.

[anon191928]

covid crash and what they did in respond to market crash disagrees.

[nemomarx]

I could see governments having a strong interest in bailing out Nvidia, Microsoft, etc at least?

[XorNot]

Why would Nvidia be in trouble? They're selling shovels during a gold rush, and have slow boated scale up - they're in no trouble.

[tyleo]

Agreed, I also feel like Microsoft is diversified enough that this would not bring them down.

Probably the hoards of startups would be most impacted. It isn’t clear the government would bale them out.

[Ekaros]

Companies like Nvidia. Microsoft, Amazon and Google are going nowhere. Just their valuations will in my opinion take massive dip. Which then will have all sorts of other effects.

They are not going to zero, but they can lose lot from the current price.

[tyleo]

Yeah, I agree with this. Maybe it’s not obvious from my point. I suspect companies will have RIFs and hair cuts but not need bail outs.

[HighGoldstein]

Nvidia might have a secondary crash if cheap GPUs flood the market. Or we get a resurgence of crypto mining, who knows.

[nemomarx]

If demand for compute and cuda dropped suddenly would they be okay going back to selling graphics cards?

[XorNot]

Their profitability would shrink, but they'd only be in trouble if they were taking on debt to expand operations on the expectation of future growth. AFAIK one of the annoyances gamers have had with Nvidia is that after crypto and now with AI, they've generally been very careful to control how they expand production since they seem quite aware the party could stop any time. It certainly helps to have a lot of product lock-in - people will bear much higher prices to stay with Nvidia at this point (due to, as noted - CUDA).

Sure, the stock price wouldn't be to the moon anymore, but that doesn't materially effect operations if they're still moving product - and gaming isn't going anywhere.

The stock price of a company can crash without it materially effecting the company in anyway...provided the company isn't taking on expansion operations on the basis of that continued growth. Historically, Nvidia have avoided this.

[tyleo]

Well they sell graphics cards now so yes. Why would they suddenly not be okay with selling graphics cards if the AI bubble popped?