[Terr_]

The normative importance of a fact may increase when more number of people start willfully ignoring it for shorter-term profit.

Imagine somebody in 2007: "It's so funny to me that people are still adamant about mortgage default risk after it's become a completely moot point because nobody cares in this housing market."

[MASNeo]

That’s nailing it really well: “willfully ignoring” is precisely what’s happening all around me. Me talking about small focused AI models, there you have everyone raving about AGI. Energy use and privacy issues of cloud vs local inference discussions end on how awesome the power of GPUs are and the jobs too. GPU backed finance with depreciation schedules past useful life seems OK for anyone chasing some short term gain. Even the job market is troubled, you can hardly tell a relevant candidate from an irrelevant one because everyone is an AI expert these days - hallucinations seem to make lying more casual.

It’s pretty clear to me there is a collective desire to ignore the problems to sell more GPU, close the next round, get that high paying AI job.

Part of me wishes humans would show the same dedication to fight climate change…

[avmich]

Didn't we have economists' consensus then about what's going to happen?

[Terr_]

My point is a fact's popularity is not equal to its importance. That was a scenario to highlight how they can even have an inverse relationship.

Diving into how well/badly anybody predicted a certain economic future is a whole different can of worms.

That said: "The market can stay irrational longer than I can stay solvent." :p