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by Veedrac
264 days ago
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I don't think there's a simple answer to this. It's a lot of things all at once. It's pretty obvious that the programme has had issues that I don't think SpaceX were prepared for, in the parts that aren't the a priori obvious hard problems. In that sense, it just hasn't been as well executed as they'd like. Especially their difficulties with weight and payload that are probably why they frontloaded so many design changes before letting it settle. Then there's some significant fraction where SpaceX really has intentionally done the 'rapid iteration' thing, and keeps flying unfinalized designs in boundary-testing ways on an in-progress factory system. For all Starship has flown badly, it's not like even the easier competition is flying much well in the meantime. Starship flies absurdly frequently. And this is in part that SpaceX aren't just building a rocket with 2-3x the liftoff thrust of a Saturn V, aren't just building a rocket with first stage reuse, aren't just building a rocket with unprecedented complete second stage reuse, they're also building it to be cheap and mass produced in a factory. Big is hard. Reuse is hard. Cheap is hard. Factories are hard. Makes sense the rocket is hard! Then there's also the point that while Starship has been a mixed bag, it has also achieved a lot. Its last flight was extremely solid, and really did show the whole mission profile down to soft and positionally-accurate drill landings of both stages. Nobody else has done what Starship has done. |
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