[ipnon]

If there were a prediction market for which Mars transit window will see a crewed Mars mission, my money would be on 2033. In Musk chronology that's next week.

[ben_w]

Although the rockets are developing fast enough, I've seen zero work on ISRU needed for returns; and politically, with two presidential elections due by then, the US now has a dichotomy between leadership who hate Musk and who will also destroy the US economy and might start wars with allies, and potential leadership that just hates Musk, a fork which is a fantastic way for even the world's richest man to find himself banned from working on rockets.

[kiba]

Get rid of Musk and keep the rest of the leadership intact.

[ben_w]

Would the rest even care to go to Mars if not for Musk?

[Animats]

A crewed flight by 2033 might be possible if it's one-way.

[nine_k]

It can't be anything else. The return ship should arrive separately with a minimal crew and with nearly full tanks.

The first crew should spend some time on Mars on their own, inside the Starship, and maybe in buildings it erects, or tunnels it digs.

[mulmen]

Surely the return ship would already be there before humans arrive?

[alex_young]

Definitely the tunnels. Buildings would need to be made out of lead or something. No windows.

[josefx]

Are there even training programs for a potential crew yet? Or even the barest framework for what a crew would even look like?