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by aborsy 265 days ago
Not necessarily. The benefits may barely trickle down, and the conditions for the majority could degrade overall.
2 comments

Based on what evidence? The last few times this happened the whole world benefitted.
Based on extensive academic research on trickle-down economics, in particular looking into the evolution of real wages of different sectors of population, since 1980s.

See the work of recent Nobel prize laureates in economics. Many argue for redistribution and investment back to the society.

But the past few revolutions benefitted everyone and we are better off. Look at industrial revolution, digital revolution. Why do you think it is different this time? If trickle down economics don't work, why is world poverty at all time low and consumption at all time high?
> Look at industrial revolution

I really don't see how one can separate the industrial revolution from colonialism, considering we have chiefs of government in colonial countries on the record saying that colonies are a necessary outlet for industrial goods [1].

Once you've established that link, it's hard to explain that "everyone" benefitted from the industrial revolution.

Even disregarding that, the working conditions created by industrialization allowed for situations that can hardly be described as "beneficial" [2][3][4].

> digital revolution.

[5] provided without comment.

---

[1]: for instance, Jules Ferry: https://www2.assemblee-nationale.fr/decouvrir-l-assemblee/hi...

[2]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Bisbee_Deportation

[3]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Ludlow_Massacre

[4]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Coal_Wars

[5]: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/PRISM

What percent of the population in places which experienced the industrial revolution would be better off if they time-travelled back 200 years? 1%? 0.2%?
> in places which experienced the industrial revolution

People experienced the industrial revolution everywhere.

I suspect, when you think "places which experienced the industrial revolution", you think about a small subset of areas where some development happened as a result of that, likely the areas where industrialists lived.

But you would also have to consider other places' experience of industrialization. For instance, Congo under EIC colonial rule did experience industrialization - it was the place where industrial amounts of rubber were harvested to allow for plants elsewhere to produce joints, pipes, motor belts, etc. It's not really hard to believe that, had Congo not experienced that, its citizen would almost certainly have been better off now.

Places that luckily avoided colonialism haven’t improved a zilch.
> Places that luckily avoided colonialism haven’t improved a zilch

Thailand and China would like a word.

As noted, this refers to Reagan policies and onward.
Even after Reagan's policies how do your points hold?
Because we are counting people's wealth in significant fractions of a trillion dollars and young people around the world cannot afford homes no more?
When have we ever had a push to full automation?
Yeah it’s a complicated picture and of course nobody knows, but it would be helpful to split “benefits” into things like;

- net benefits to the average person (considering drawbacks)

- overall relative benefits compared to income groups

- benefits in certain areas of society and topics

I think there’ll be some “benefits for all” in terms of things like medical advances and health technology. There will also be broader benefits to all in general areas but as a parent poster said it’ll benefit equity holders most and there might be some bad tradeoffs (like we’ll have access to much better information and entertainment but it may also affect the overall employment rate). It’s a very nuanced picture and it’s probably disingenuous of some tech leaders to say “we’ll all benefit) but some do believe that will be the future.