[randycupertino]

Moody's analysts are already warning of a “Growth Recession” based on corporate credit strain.

> Moody's forecast model for recession, which has had zero false positives, now predicts 49% probability of recession.

> Every time that particular model gets over 50 (50%) we've had a recession. And we've never had a false positive. Never has it risen above 50, and we've not gotten a recession.

https://www.moodys.com/web/en/us/insights/podcasts/inside-ec...

[kulahan]

I wonder how big that 1% of wiggle room is. I wish I had some way to conceptualize this a little better. 49% sounds bad, but where do we typically sit? If it's 44%, I don't care nearly as much. If it's 5%, I'm freaking out a little bit, you know?

[mlyle]

> Every time that particular model gets over 50 (50%) we've had a recession.

Isn't that a little broken? It says there's a 51% chance of it happening, and it always happens?