[ten_hands]

I don't see how this works though. OpenAI doesn't exist in a vacuum, it has competitors, and the first company to stop improving their model will get obliterated by the others. It seems like they are doomed to keep retraining right up until the VC funding runs out, at which point they go bankrupt.

Some other company, that doesn't have a giant pile of debt will then pick up the pieces and make some money though. Once we dig out of the resulting market crash.

[lumost]

The winner takes all thesis would be that like TSMC, the capex of competing in this field keeps growing until only one vendor can both raise sufficient capital to compete and effectively execute with that capital. OpenAI doesn't need to be the first to stop raising money and go profitable, they need to be the last vendor to go profits first.

[wmf]

It's not impossible that the crash will hit all companies at the same time and they might all stop training.