[taylodl]

The US will absolutely confront China over an attack on Taiwan just to secure its own processor supply chain. If production is moved to the US, then Taiwan can count on losing that US defense. Trump has undermined his own negotiation.

[purpleKiwi]

> "Trump has undermined his own negotiation."

It is baffling to me how often this happens, even for him.

[mytailorisrich]

"Confront" is very wide. If you mean that the US would go to war against the PRC then the answer is obviously "No".

[taylodl]

I don't think that's obvious. There's some thought that it may be best to confront China now before they become a superpower, because afterward it would be obviously "No." Taiwan is more critical than you may think. Both Japan and South Korea have assurances of US defense as part of our non-nuclear proliferation pact. If they see us drop the ball on Taiwan, then they know that assurance means nothing. North Korea also knows it can take more aggressive action once the US has revealed its hand. This is not a position the US wants to be in. In the end, I think the US would be forced to aid Taiwan against China much like it has been doing with the Ukraine against Russia. Which is one of the many reasons why the Ukraine is so important.

[mytailorisrich]

Well it is obvious. The US struggled against the PRC in the Korea War and that was when the PRC was at its weakest. Now any direct war betwen the PRC and the US would be unthinkable as that would be catastrophic for both sides and the world (and the PRC is stronger than the USSR ever was).

So there is a lot of rhetoric and strategic fuzziness in public statements but the US are not starting WWIII over Taiwan.

> US would be forced to aid Taiwan against China much like it has been doing with the Ukraine against Russia

Of course they would aid Taiwan and they do now. This is not the same at all.

[taylodl]

I’m not talking about rhetorical support or diplomatic gestures. I’m talking about real aid - military, logistical, and strategic support in the face of actual Chinese aggression. If Japan and South Korea see that the US will not materially aid Taiwan’s defense, then the credibility of US security assurances collapses. That would effectively cede East Asia to China.

So - the US can't be seen as doing nothing because that has disastrous consequences. At the same time, as you point out, the US can't go all-out in defense of Taiwan for fear of igniting widespread conflict. The US needs to be very careful in how it responds.

Good thing this administration is renowned for subtlety and nuance! :)

[mytailorisrich]

> I’m talking about real aid - military, logistical, and strategic support

So do I.

> That would effectively cede East Asia to China.

Not at all. Taiwan is Chinese territory as recognised by everyone. The dispute is the continuation of the Chinese Civil War, i.e. which side controls Taiwan.

China has no expansionist views in East Asia, and the last occurence was when they invaded Korea in 1636 (taking into account that this was right after the Manchu seized control of the whole of China). In fact, the last invasion of East Asia (that continues to this day) was by the US...

[taylodl]

> Taiwan is Chinese territory as recognised by everyone.

Most countries do not recognize Chinese sovereignty over Taiwan. However, they also don't officially recognize Taiwan as an independent country. This is the position of strategic ambiguity. Even the UN has failed to recognize China's sovereignty over Taiwan. Taiwan's status is an unresolved issue in international law.

As for the idea that China has no expansionist views in East Asia, that's not supported by the facts. From Taiwan to the South China Sea to the Senkaku Islands, China has made aggressive territorial claims and has conducted coercive actions below the threshold of war to assert control. These actions aren't defensive - they're strategic moves to reshape the regional order. If the US fails to respond meaningfully, it risks undermining its alliances and ceding East Asia to Chinese dominance.

Bottom line: The U.S. must carefully consider how much political capital it’s willing to spend to prevent Chinese hegemony in East Asia and what the fallout will be if it fails.