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by m_a_g 253 days ago
There are many people who are adamant that this bubble will burst. Those who believe that, did you sell all your S&P 500 stocks?

I have many friends and coworkers who think the AI race will come crashing down. But they are not selling their stocks. I’d love for some AI skeptic to help me make sense of this mess.

4 comments

Selling stock triggers huge tax implications. It can be rational to think the market will retreat significantly without selling everything you own.
"Bears sound smart, bulls get rich".

"The market can stay irrational for longer than you can stay solvent" (or in this case, for longer than you're willing to lose on gains).

Some individuals are simply less risk averse (or more influenced by FOMO) and more willing to play the musical chairs game for longer.

The S&P 500 has mostly been moving sideways without the Mag 7 included so obviously, if AI revenues don’t materialize the result would be predictable for the index, because the growth is so concentrated.
Do they also believe that the GenAI bubble is propping up the value of the S&P 500? If so, they are behaving irrationally. If not, then it is perfectly reasonable to maintain an S&P 500 investment while asserting the AI bubble will burst.