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by colechristensen 256 days ago
Ugh.

THE SAME NUMBER OF SOYBEANS ARE GETTING CONSUMED.

If China is buying South American soybeans instead of US soybeans than whoever was buying from South America is going to buy from the US because it's not like 8 million tons of soybeans per month are magically getting created in Brazil.

It's not that there will be no market effect but it's pretty close to a zero sum game because the global production and consumption of soy really isn't changing that much.

2 comments

<it's not like 8 million tons of soybeans per month are magically getting created in Brazil>

Brazil increase in production this year is 5.3 million metric tons. So looks like Brazil can replace US exports to China without affecting existing customers.

Brazil’s 2025/26 Soy Crop Seen Growing 3% Versus the Previous Cycle

https://www.agriculture.com/partners-brazil-s-2025-26-soy-cr...

> month

> year

Why are farmers asking for a bailout, claiming no one is buying their soy beans?