[MountDoom]

Pretty long, given that the US had a fully-fiat currency for 50+ years, and many European countries had it for longer than that. Per CPI, your dollar is worth 8x less than what it was worth in 1970.

This, in itself, doesn't mean anything profound. There's nothing to "snap" if the expectation of stable, modest inflation is baked into the markets. Fiat currencies usually implode only when something else undermines the confidence in the issuing government.

[eadmund]

> your dollar is worth 8x less than what it was worth in 1970.

A dollar in 2025 is not worth -7 (i.e. eight times one less than one) dollars from 1970; it is worth ⅛th of a dollar from 1970.

Yes, I know what you mean. But ‘×’ is multiplication, not division — and phrases like ‘¼ less than’ and ‘3 less than’ have clear meanings inconsistent with using ‘8× less than’ to mean ‘⅛th.’

[zahlman]

For that matter, the US recovered from the inflation of the 80s and avoided a serious hyperinflationary spiral of the sort seen in many less stable regimes, and when the real-terms price of gold spiked in 2011 it wasn't even accompanied by unusual levels of inflation.

[pizlonator]

The issue is that we're seeing asset price inflation that is far greater than CPI

In other words, we have two different inflations happening at once, leading to people who happened to own the right assets getting richer and everyone else getting poorer. I don't think that's what an efficient market would do, which implies that efficiency will kick in at some point and BOOM

[zahlman]

> we're seeing asset price inflation that is far greater than CPI

Have a look at the CPI-adjusted gold chart, and think back to how awful things were (or weren't) in 2011.

[MountDoom]

> In other words, we have two different inflations happening at once

CPI is just an index of consumer prices. It's like saying that we have two stock markets because Nvidia is going up faster than Costco.

> People who happened to own the right assets getting richer and everyone else getting poorer

It's not a zero-sum game. Almost everyone is more wealthy than their peers 30-40 years ago.

Wealth disparities widen, but the reasons for this are complex and go beyond inflation. And frankly, many of them are self-inflicted. Every single housing development in my neighborhood is thoroughly protested by everyone. And most of what my city officials do is inventing new rules and regulations. They're not working for big corporations or the federal government.

> I don't think that's what an efficient market would do

Sounds like you spotted an arbitrage opportunity?