[Schnitz]

Sanctions work, but not in the way that is the common public perception. The expectation isn’t that Russia or whoever falls apart a few weeks after we lock them out of Visa payment rails or whatever. The reality is that the sanctions stifle economic growth and that effect is compounding. Even if sanctions only reduce growth by 1 percentage point, after ~19 years your economy is already 20% smaller than it would be without sanctions and that is measurable. From a national security perspective, it makes Russia a lot less concerning if their industrial output is 20% less. Now imagine trying to start a software business in Iran, the stifling effect is way higher than a measly percentage point. Note that I’m not making a moral judgement, I’m simply sharing my understanding of sanctions.

[akho]

> Now imagine trying to start a software business in Iran, the stifling effect is way higher than a measly percentage point.

Depriving Iranians of legal access to Western tools opens the market to locals. I suspect that the market is big enough to build a business.

It'difficult to assess gdp impact in this particular area. It's not really dependent on blockable imports.

[ivan_gammel]

> From a national security perspective, it makes Russia a lot less concerning if their industrial output is 20% less

Russian military industrial output has significantly increased and more importantly they demonstrated the ability to scale it up very quickly. The economy has grown during the war - the effects of the sanctions may become painful in the long term only if they will stay for decades, which is unlikely.