[jjav]

> This really does need to be considered preliminary data based on only one trial.

Statistically yes, but look at the actual facts of the case.

A large object on the road, not moving, perfect visibility. And the Tesla drives straight into it.

Not hitting static objects in perfect visibility is pretty much baseline requirement #1 of self driving. And Tesla fails to meet even this.

[fuzzfactor]

It does look like lower performance than a first-time driving student.

I really couldn't justify 1000:1 with such "sparse" data, but I do get the idea that these are some non-linear probabilities of making it back in one piece.

It seems like it could easily be 1,000,000:1 and the data would look no different at this point.