[LanceJones]

Overvalued by traditional (PE) means. I've ridden in Waymo (50+) and Austin Robotaxis (12). Tesla has Waymo beat in terms of human-like feel, interior features (sync to your own Spotify, Youtube, etc). When Tesla removes the passenger seat monitor, scaling will happen much faster than Waymo... Tesla just received the initial license for driverless Robotaxi in Nevada. Tesla also produces more Robotaxi-capable Model Ys in ~6 hours as Waymo has cars in service (in total).

[bugufu8f83]

Tesla's self-driving technology is a joke compared to Waymo's and the Tesla brand is extremely toxic now. I see from your other comments that you're big on Tesla (own several and have a son who works there) but as an unbiased observer I cannot fathom them winning this market.

[LanceJones]

I have 2 AI4 Teslas with FSD, and I don't find V13.2.9 lacking at all in the Vancouver area. V14 will be a 10x increase in parameters, too. Why do you feel it's a "joke"?

[minwcnt5]

It's a "joke" (I wouldn't call it that, but it's a vastly different product) because you have to pay attention to the road at all times.

You don't live in a Waymo city, so I understand. A lot of people who don't live in a Waymo city don't really get it.

Waymo is a completely different product than FSD. It's a robot that comes and drives you from point A to point B. You can do whatever you want while it's driving, such as take a nap or work on your laptop.

[Fricken]

Tesla was SAE level 2 in 2013, and they are still SAE level 2. Waymo's Robotaxis are SAE level 4, and they can drive on public roads empty with no human supervision, both technically and legally.

[senordevnyc]

Also safely.

[umanwizard]

> I have 2 AI4 Teslas with FSD

That is false. No Tesla is capable of full self-driving.

Mandatory supervision by a human on the driver’s seat is not full self-driving, no matter how much Elon insists on calling it that.

[xnx]

> When Tesla removes the passenger seat monitor

This is a huge jump, possibly still 5+ years away.

[LanceJones]

I have friends on the Autopilot team (and a son). Their goal is by end of year. I've been on HN for 15+ years, and seemingly the only downvotes I get are when I post my thoughts and opinions on Tesla.

[tsimionescu]

Tesla FSD has been autonomous by the end of the year for 8+ years now. Don't believe people desperate to make Elon's lies seem plausible.

[xnx]

It would be great if Tesla figured out how to do safe autonomous driving with their very limited sensor suite, but there's a lot of reason to be skeptical: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_predictions_for_autono...

I wouldn't not be surprised if they figure out some very narrow way to have no safety driver in the car (1:1 remote ops?) by the end of the year.

[Zigurd]

1:1 is going to be ruinously expensive. You need three shifts of remote operators. Even in the Philippines or Vietnam, if you can make the latency work, that's prohibitive.

[xnx]

> 1:1 is going to be ruinously expensive.

I agree, but this is how taxis/Ubers work.

[fastball]

How do Elon Musk's predictions relate to Tesla achieving a robotaxi service or not?

Ignore his predictions and just... look at whether or not the Tesla FSD team is making progress.

[cycomanic]

> How do Elon Musk's predictions relate to Tesla achieving a robotaxi service or not? > > Ignore his predictions and just... look at whether or not the Tesla FSD team is making progress.

I'm seriously baffled by this comment. How can Elons comments not be relevant? How are you proposing we assess the progress of the FSD team? And why should the assessment be different to the last 5 years where FSD was supposedly ready (according to someone with intimate insight into the work of the FSD team) by the end of the year?

[fastball]

> How are you proposing we assess the progress of the FSD team?

...any metric you want? Miles driven under FSD. Miles driven without intervention. Miles driven without accident. Anecdata from friends of yours who own a Tesla. Whether or not a partially supervised pilot program has been launched in some cities.

If Elon Musk said in 1999 "I think we will achieve self-driving next year", that also has no bearing on whether or not self-driving is achieved in 2025 (in either the positive or negative direction). It only means that Elon Musk's "predictions" can't be trusted as an accurate harbinger of success. Which is precisely why you look beyond his words and at the reality on the ground, which strongly indicates Tesla has made a huge amount of progress in the last 10 years, and could be very close to having unsupervised robotaxi service in various jurisdictions.

[terabytest]

FSD is widely considered to be off its originally-stated goal by at least 5 to 6 years.

[super_flanker]

> Their goal is by end of year.

It's like what 6-7 years since the goal was "end of the year".

[telcodud]

Can we expect you to come back on Jan 1, 2026 and provide an update?

[HackerThemAll]

You're not "posting your opinions on Tesla", you're literally shoveling them into everybody's throats. You'd be "posting your opinions" when it was one, two comments, and not plenty, like under this news. You're a Tesla freak or fanboy, not an objective commenter.

[umanwizard]

Yeah, I also heard Sky Ferreira’s album is coming out this year.

[ImPostingOnHN]

I think the downvotes might be due to one or more of the following:

- You're uncritically parroting the notoriously untrustworthy talking points of a notoriously untrustworthy company, and HN posters expect more critical thought in comments.

- You're redirecting to some rumored "goal" rather than a realistic prediction, which was the topic, and HN posters liked the topic.

- HN posters may think that your vested interest in tesla behooves you to think more critically than the average person on matters involving tesla, rather than less, to overcome any implicit bias you might have.

- I have a goal of end-of-month, so that means I'll have it even sooner than tesla, right? This is how many view the claim by tesla, except I, a random person, literally have less of a reputation for dissembling and failure to deliver than tesla does.

[Zigurd]

> Their goal is by end of year.

Ummm.

[FireBeyond]

> When Tesla removes the passenger seat monitor

They literally moved that monitor to the driver's seat! Progress, indeed.

[CaliforniaKarl]

Waymo does not have YouTube sync, but they do have Apotify sync.