| HN Mirror

Young women have never been more liberal in America [1]. 77% of women won’t date a Trump supporter [2]. Based on Census Bureau historical data and Morgan Stanley forecasts, 45% of prime working age women (ages 25-44) will be single by 2030—the largest share in history—up from 41% in 2018 [3]. A majority of single women in the US are not in the dating marketplace [4]. The average age of a farmer is 58 [5] and they commit suicide at a rate 3.5x the general population [6]. ~75-80% of them voted for this administration. The US fertility rate is 1.6, and continues to decline.

Based on the above data and facts (think in demographic systems in this context), my thesis is rural America continues to wither away, and demographics continues to be destiny. Conservatives won’t go extinct, but they’re certainly not on an upward trajectory. I cannot predict how farm bankruptcies from the current trade war [7], and the collapse of rural hospital systems in rural America from the OBB is going to change this [8], but it’s likely it pulls forward the future imho.

Young conservative voters appear to have some regret [9] [10], too early to tell if it causes them to vote differently next time. Or if they’ll be able to find partners to have kids with, based on the first paragraph data and facts.

[1] https://news.gallup.com/poll/609914/women-become-liberal-men...

[2] https://www.newsweek.com/majority-women-wont-date-trump-supp...

[3] https://www.morganstanley.com/ideas/womens-impact-on-the-eco...

[4] https://www.pewresearch.org/social-trends/2020/08/20/nearly-...

[5] https://www.nprillinois.org/2024-02-14/aging-farmers-and-few...

[6] https://www.agweb.com/news/business/health/silent-truth-hidd...

[7] https://farmpolicynews.illinois.edu/2025/07/farm-bankruptcie...

[8] https://ruralhospitals.chqpr.org/

[9] https://www.bloomberg.com/opinion/articles/2025-08-26/trump-... | https://archive.ph/2025.08.27-130342/https://www.bloomberg.c...

[10] https://www.pewresearch.org/politics/2025/08/14/trumps-tarif...