[japanuspus]

> PSA: the "No Tax On Tips" provision expires...

My understanding is that this is true for all the Trump handouts: otherwise the ten-year economic outlooks would have cratered. The Economist had a couple of nice analyses on this.

Of course this means that the next administration will need to start with tax increases just to get to neutral, but maybe that is a feature?

[ahoka]

The Republican strategy is to booby trap the US economy every time they are in power since Reagan.

[zimpenfish]

> true for all the Trump handouts: otherwise the ten-year economic outlooks would have cratered

Not just that - they're often timed to expire early into the next administration which, if Democrats win, is an instant "look how the Democrats treat the working folk!" hammer. e.g. "Tax Cuts and Jobs Act" from 2017, expiring at the end of 2025[0].

[0] https://theconversation.com/trumps-plans-to-extend-tax-cuts-...

[rayiner]

Tax bills are universally passed through the budget reconciliation process these days to overcome the filibuster (can do a budget with only 51 Senate votes). That process has many restrictions on what tax changes can do to projected revenues outside a certain window: https://www.ey.com/en_us/insights/tax/prospects-for-budget-r....

[overfeed]

> My understanding is that this is true for all the Trump handouts

Only those for humans expire. The corporate tax cuts are forever. Read into that what you will.

[Y_Y]

Luckily the politicians involved are set to expire around the same time

[rayiner]

Those were set to expire this year as well but got extended.

[drdec]

> Of course this means that the next administration will need to start with tax increases just to get to neutral, but maybe that is a feature?

Oh no.

What you have missed is the incredible end run around the spirit of the reconciliation process that the Republicans did this time around.

So, the did these tricks with the tax in Trump's first term, with tax breaks set to sunset in order to have a revenue-neutral effect over the required ten years.

This time around they needed to extend those breaks, right? So they must had to cut spending or raise other taxes in order to do that and have a revenue-neutral effect, right?

Ha ha, no! They convinced the CBO that the baseline for the reconciliation process this time should be whatever was in effect for the last few years. So those breaks are already baked in and don't need to be counterbalanced. It's a two-step, long-term process for making things permanent through the reconciliation process that otherwise one could not.