[karaterobot]

If it turns out the dip is caused by a lag between the implementation of new tariff rules and the implementation of processes to handle them, and that in a short time traffic to the U.S. goes back to essentially its prior levels, what will that mean to the commenters in this thread? All of the hyper-rational, fact-based people in this thread, I mean. Because that seems like the most likely outcome to me.

[overfeed]

Lot's of small businesses dependent on imports are already shutting down. I know dropshippers are unpopular, but the policy flip-flops are affecting more than that. A lot of low-volume, custom-designed niche products[1] have disappeared, and won't come back when the tariff payment mechanisms are implemented

1. e.g. PCBs for vintage computers, and some potential kickstarter projects are now non-viable.

[bitshiftfaced]

Presumably it should have some effect for no other reason than how there's no longer a de minimis exemption.

[Tadpole9181]

I mean, you've biased answers here.

Does "hyper-rational" allow for arguments about how this affects soft power and the relationships with foreign businesses? Does it allow adding additional tallies in the ongoing list of reasons other countries should not trust us or the dollar as a reserve?

The US economy is currently being operated by a single man, who has no actual long-term plan and randomly flips levers and switches beyond his legal power to do so. He randomly targets companies and policies based on whoever last spoke to him or whatever social media post he saw at 3 AM. And now he's shut down an entire lane of trade for several months. Just... Dead.

Many businesses will simply not take US orders anymore after this fiasco. Some may go out of business by the time things come back.

And that's before any discussion about the actual de minimus changes. Changes which will effectively kill the ability for the average American citizen to custom order anything from any other country.

As an example: in my part of the woods, women don't really like to buy from retail stores anymore. The quality is crap and they're often ugly clothes with inconsistent sizing. So a lot of them would be custom stuff from Etsy, slightly more expensive but MUCH higher quality and made to fit. A lot of it came from eastern Europe.

That market is dead. Guess it's back to cheap Chinese T-shirts.

But don't, worry 5 billionaires came to the white house and worshipped Trump on camera like some weird North Korea / Stalinistic shit.

[conscion]

> And that's before any discussion about the actual de minimus changes. Changes which will effectively kill the ability for the average American citizen to custom order anything from any other country.

How does it kill the ability to custom order? My understanding of removing de minimus is only that the tariffs now apply to all orders. And because most tariffs now have been set ~30%, an order that was previously $100 is now $130. It seems like many willing to order custom made clothing would also be willing to pay an extra 30%.

[Tadpole9181]

No, now you also need to go through formal customs entry and pay the other related fees. I think the minimum flat duty fee is $80-200 depending on country, so that'd be a $50 shirt becoming a $130 shirt.

Or they can switch courier, but that comes with the ad valorem tax and then that couriers brokerage fees - at least $30 dollars (though they'll probably raise it now that they don't have to compete). So a $50 shirt is now $85.

On top of that is the extra paperwork the seller now has to go through. And who knows if the tariff will change on the way, so maybe throw on a surcharge for Americans or just refuse the orders entirely.

> It seems like many willing to order custom made clothing would also be willing to pay an extra 30%.

These aren't rich people. They're paying a little extra already to avoid the poor tax of cheap, unethical crap they have to replace more often. Even just 30% is a huge markup because now instead of being double the price, it's almost triple the price of the worse stuff where those fees are amortized.

It's hard for me to believe I'm hearing, on HN of all places, "it's just 30% more expensive".

[cmxch]

“ Many businesses will simply not take US orders anymore after this fiasco. Some may go out of business by the time things come back.”

Oh they will, they just will go through an intermediary.