[nchmy]

The hockey stick growth is the entire problem - it's an optical illusion resulting from the fact that going from 100 to 200 is the same rate as 200 to 400. And 800, 1600. You understand exponents.

Log axis solves this, and turns meaningless hockey sticks into generally a straightish line that you can actually parse. If it still deviates from straight, then you really know there's true changes in the trendline.

Lines on same chart can all be divided by their initial value, anchoring them all at 1. Sometimes they're still a mess, but it's always worth a try.

You're enormously knowledgeable and the posts were fascinating. But this is stats 101. Not doing this sort of thing, especially explicitly in favour of showing a hockey stick, undermines the fantastic analysis.