[mbac32768]

We think this because ten years ago we were all having our minds blown by DeepMind's game playing achievements and videos of dancing robots and thought this meant blue collar work would be solved imminently.

But most of these solutions were more crude than they let on, and you wouldn't really know unless you were working in AI already.

Watch John Carmack's recent talk at Upper Bound if you want him to see him destroy like a trillion dollars worth of AI hype.

https://m.youtube.com/watch?v=rQ-An5bhkrs&t=11303s&pp=2AGnWJ...

Spoiler: we're nowhere close to AGI

[Hendrikto]

> But most of these solutions were more crude than they let on, and you wouldn't really know unless you were working in AI already.

Same with LLMs. Despite having seen this play out before, and being aware of this, people are falling for it again.

[uncircle]

Thank you for this update. I vividly remember a few years ago the excitement of John Carmack announcing he was retreating into his cave to do some deep work on AGI, pushing the boundaries of the current AI research. I truly appreciate Carmack's intellectual honesty now at announcing "yeah, no, LLMs are not the way to go to recreate anything remotely close to human intelligence.". In fact, and I quote him, "we do not even have a line of sight to [the fundamentals of intelligence]."

I'm honestly relieved that one of the brightest minds in computing, with all the resources and desire to create actual super-intelligences, has had to temper hard his expectations.

[hackinthebochs]

I don't think that quote from Carmack represents some deeply considered conclusion. He started off his efforts with embodiment. He either never considered LLMs a path towards AGI, or thought he didn't personally have anything to contribute to LLMs (he talked about it early on in his journey but I don't remember the specifics). He didn't spend a year investigating LLMs and then decide that they weren't the path to AGI. The point is that he has no special insight regarding LLMs relationship to AGI and its misleading to imply that his current effort towards building AGI that eschew LLMs is an expert opinion.

[uncircle]

Yes, I meant to say that, for Carmack, no type of modern AI research has figured out the path to actual general intelligence. I just didn't want to use the meaningless "AI" buzzword, and these days all the focus and money is on large language models, especially when talking about the end goal of AGI.