[Symmetry]

Proudly proclaiming on the Conversations With Tyler podcast that given a double or nothing bet with a 51% chance of success he'd keep playing forever.

[arduanika]

It is probably just a coincidence, but it's darkly funny how well this lines up with the strategy described in a rather infamous LessWrong post. The title is "Solutions to the Altruist's burden: the Quantum Billionaire Trick", but you probably know it by a different name. The author is one Roko Mijic.

[rsynnott]

Probably not a total confidence; it’s EA/rationalist theory taken to ludicrous extremes in both cases.

[rsynnott]

*coincidence

[arduanika]

Yeah, not a total coincidence of thinking style. I just don't think it's likely that SBF was literally thinking about Roko's post as he did the crimes.

[AnimalMuppet]

Not forever. He'd have nothing soon enough.

[twostorytower]

Isn't that just the right thing to do, statistically? Vegas has been operating profitably this way for decades.

[roncesvalles]

It's not the same due to the Law of Large Numbers. The risk involved in many small 51% bets is very different from the risk in a single all-or-nothing 51% bet.

[lelanthran]

> The risk involved in many small 51% bets is very different from the risk in a single all-or-nothing 51% bet.

Right, but parent didn't say anything about an all-in bet, just double-or-nothing on a positive EV bet.

Frankly, I'd repeatedly bet on a positive EV bet too; it's a guaranteed win if you're allowed to go on for as long as you want to.

[FergusArgyll]

The context was double or nothing the entire human population of the universe.