[yahoozoo]

That and LLMs are seemingly plateauing. Earlier this year, it seemed like the big companies were releasing noticeable improvements every other week. People would joke a few weeks is “an eternity” in AI…so what time span are we looking at now?

[andrewflnr]

That's just the thing. There don't seem to have been any breakthroughs in model performance or architecture, so it seems like we're back to picking up marginal reductions in cost to make any progress.

[muldvarp]

There have been very large improvements in code generation in the last 6 months. A few weeks without improvement are not necessarily a plateau.

[ACCount37]

Wait until it ramps up so much that people will say "it's a plateau, for real this time" when they go 3 days without a +10% capability jump.

[muldvarp]

I mean I wish there were a plateau, without one we're well onto our way into techno-feudalism. I just don't see it.

[ACCount37]

That's what it is: wishful thinking. A lot of people really, really want AI tech to fail - because they don't like the alternative.

[muldvarp]

Yeah, obviously nobody that actually though about the consequences wants a large part of the population to become unemployed. Even if your job is not threatened by automation, it will be threatened by a lot of people looking for new jobs.

And the kind of automation brought by LLMs is decidely different than automation in the past which almost always created new (usually better) jobs. LLMs won't do this (at least to extent where it would matter) I think. Most people in ten years will have worse jobs (more physically straining, longer hours, less pay) unless there will be a political intervention.