[tatsuke95]

Universa is run by Mark Spitznagel; Taleb is only loosely associated. Because it's a closed, private fund that isn't required to produce audited financials, nobody on the outside really knows what kind of returns it has produced.

Taleb and his theory make for a good story in the wake of the financial meltdown, but the tangible application is sometimes exaggerated [1].

[1]http://www.businessinsider.com/wait-before-you-invest-in-nas...

[btilly]

That's what I get for skimming to remind myself of facts instead of reading.

I got Universa from the Google search blurb from Wikipedia. I got the over 100% figure from http://www.bloomberg.com/news/2011-10-06/black-swan-money-ma... which quoted "a person familiar with the matter" as saying that the fund brought in 115% during 2008.

However if I read either closely it was obvious that Taleb does not run Universa.

[tatsuke95]

I wouldn't fret; Spitznagel is open about the fact that the firm's strategy is based off of economic "Black Swans" and Taleb's work, and there's definitely an association.

As far as the returns, the 100% figure wouldn't surprise me, really; more than a few bearish funds crushed it during 2008. It just seems like that number is the financial media echo chamber in action. It's repeated over and over in article after article (just look at the citations for it on the Universa wikipedia page). And yet, it always comes from an unnamed source or someone "familiar" with the fund. If there's anything I've learned from the financial crisis, it's that hedge fund managers aren't particularly trustworthy; even less so when they're talking their own book!