[chrsw]

China is racing full speed ahead to win in all these tech domains regardless of export controls.

They will surpass us on chips just like they surpassed us on EVs. The leading edge of chip design is very complex so it will just take more time than EVs. But it is inevitable.

Even if China could get their hands on all the NVIDIA GPUs they wanted they would still try to make their own as fast as possible.

[1231231231e]

Sure, designing modern integrated circuits isn't easy. However it still is way easier than what you need to manufacture them. Design of digital integrated circuits is commonly more understood with information being readily available.

In theory you could gain the knowledge to design an early 1990s CPU at the logic gate level by reading some books and doing a bit of research, on the other hand actually manufacturing such IC would take considerably more effort.

[chrsw]

CPU design has come a long way since the 1990s. Superscalar designs, high speed memory interfaces, multi-level caches, out-of-order execution, machine level translation, JIT optimization, the list goes on. Just one feature of frontier high performance chip design is far more complex than an entire MPU from decades ago. And many of these techniques are IP protected. Which is of no concern to China. But here in the US it's a big reason why there hasn't been as much competition in this space, aside from the ISA cross-licensing agreements of course.

Design and manufacturing are both engineering problems. Throw enough people and money at the problem and it will get done eventually. What we're banking on in the West is by the time China catches up to where we are now we'll be on to the next thing. Always one step ahead. What I'm saying is, unless we refocus our society on STEM, those days are numbered.

[wuschel]

Thanks for your input!

Since you are from this domain:

1. Why will they master it? Because they dedicate their industrial strategy and hence resources to it like they did in the other technological domains and flood the market?

2. Is the only way out a strict decoupling from the Chinese market in these domains? Or would it be a strategy that involves protecting domestic industries with other levers?

[chrsw]

1. Why is because making advanced chips is an engineering problem, not magic. It's about motivation, resources and time. China as all three. 2. If we don't want to rely on China for critical technology we need to focus on our own values and education, which will take generations to realize. But that's what China did, so it's not impossible. Industrial and financial policy are useless if you don't have the cultural and intellectual inclination towards self-sufficiency.

[wuschel]

Thanks for your reply.

I understand that advanced chip making has been done, and is an engineering problem. By generations I assume you mean cohorts.

However, one must not forget the subsidy lever China is using to distort competitive advantage on a financial level. As long as we do not level the playing field in a strategic sense, we will loose on the market long term.