[estearum]

Right... that's how influence campaigns work. They take root at low-level inputs and get laundered onto larger and more legitimate platforms.

A brief visit to Twitter will show you the hordes of bots constantly farming outrage bait, which then gets picked up by the micro-influencers, which then gets picked up (with some FSB financial assistance) by Tim Pool, Rubin, and Benny Johnson, which then gets picked up by Rogan and Shapiro, which then gets picked up by the Department of Homeland Security's official press releases and finally encoded into next week's executive order.

This is a description of a successful information op.

(Edit: The other commenter is correct that this is also happening within the BLM and BLM-adjacent movements and the green party -- all the same dynamic, but only one has found a direct route to an especially mercurial president's ear)

[Ygg2]

I mean it doesn't seem to be a really well designed or effective influence campaign.

If sowing division is the goal of KGB, they don't need to do anything. Americans are way better and have been way longer in that game. Honestly just pretending to give people money would be most cost effective.

If getting to own/buy Trump is the goal, they fucked up in that department. Ukraine is still getting support. China and India are getting tariffs, etc.

[estearum]

What’s the counterfactual?

Neither of us have any clue how divided we’d be sans FSB information ops. We know for a fact these ops are happening and have infiltrated at least up to the White House’s shortlist of media personalities.

IMO it’s extremely naive to believe that information ops for some reason wouldn’t be effective in our own country. This stuff is based on some pretty basic psychological understanding (some of the most highly replicated) and our information infrastructure is especially fertile ground for it.

[Ygg2]

> What’s the counterfactual?

The division in American weren't created by a foreign entity. The class war simply never ended.

If you're rich you want to keep less rich off your lawn. So you let the guys with torches fight the guys with pitchforks, by convincing they are each other's enemy.

> IMO it’s extremely naive to believe that information ops for some reason wouldn’t be effective in our own country.

It's another form of naivete to think that average CIA operative is any better at his job than average Joe.

[estearum]

> The division in American weren't created by a foreign entity. The class war simply never ended.

You're stating this as if class tensions preclude the existence or effectiveness of foreign information operations. Do you actually believe that to be true?

Frankly you are not thinking very hard if you're making definitive monocausal statements about something like "divisiveness" in America.

Class tensions hurt us, race tensions hurt us, cultural and historical tensions hurt us, ideological tensions hurt us, and all of these are opportunistically weaponized by people (both foreign and domestic) who benefit from a more fractured America.

We're talking about one such entity, which is Russia.

> It's another form of naivete to think that average CIA operative is any better at his job than average Joe.

This isn't required to be effective at a job, which is why there are hordes of totally average yet gainfully employed people in the world. No one stated anyone is better than the average Joe at anything.

[Ygg2]

> You're stating this as if class tensions preclude the existence or effectiveness of foreign information operations. Do you actually believe that to be true?

I'm saying, what could Russians possibly do that Americans aren't already doing to themselves? Look at: The War on drugs, The War on terror, and omnipresent surveillance. These weren't instituted by Russian agents.

And if Russia was that omnipotent, then their "special op in Ukraine" would actually be a few days "special OP".

Whatever paltry ops Russia has is like a drop in the ocean compared to what the US (or other actors) are doing on US.

[estearum]

Who said they're doing things Americans aren't already doing to themselves? It wasn't me! In fact I said the precise opposite: they generally exploit pre-existing divisions.

Who said Russia is omnipotent? Also wasn't me!

> Whatever paltry ops Russia has is like a drop in the ocean compared to what the US (or other actors) are doing on US.

This, however, is an actual assertive claim of fact. Can you tell me any other intelligence services that we know has assets invited to the White House on a regular basis in order to do the actions they were hired by Russia to do?

If no, then I don't think you have evidence to substantiate this claim.